This blog is intended to be an exchange of ideas among those interested in the future of transportation and community development in Jefferson County, on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington state.
Friday, November 21, 2008
What does your crystal ball show?
What do you see in the future? What happens after peak oil? What will fuel our transport modes? Will water transport once again play a significant role for our local ports?
EDITOR'S NOTE: The following was posted by "badpony" on November 27 under the first topic heading, "Experimental Blog." I'm re-posting here because the comments are relevant to this subject and perhaps will spark a reaction:
"Jefferson County should look to the future and build roads.
The end of the automobile has been predicted since Expo 21 in Seattle, when we were told the monorails would some day wisk us everywhere. Fifty years later we are still in our cars and if I were going to make a prediction I would say that 100 years from now, the private automobile will be our primary form of transportation.
Think the end of oil will get us out of cars? Think again. Recall that as recently as 1970 there were no cell phones, computers, internet, computer aided drafting or satellite TV. Now a car has more computer power than a mainframe had in 1970. Could anyone in 1970 have predicted the things we now take for granted? Can one realistically predict what life will be like in 2050?
When trying to envision the future the only constant is that the pace of technological innovation will accelerate. The private passenger car is a most practical and popular means of transport in a rural county like ours. The only thing that will get us out of our cars is a fuel shortage. New power sources, better batteries, efficient electric and internal combustion motors are on the drawing boards and they will keep us in our cars for the that next 100 years."
Alternatives like electric cars are great, but they are expensive to purchase and they have a lot of embedded energy, which is even truer of the roads we build. My crystal ball says that many people are going to have difficulty affording them. Also, our culture will only make it into the crystal ball if we cut back drastically on energy usage and CO2 emissions, starting right now.
2 comments:
EDITOR'S NOTE:
The following was posted by "badpony" on November 27 under the first topic heading, "Experimental Blog." I'm re-posting here because the comments are relevant to this subject and perhaps will spark a reaction:
"Jefferson County should look to the future and build roads.
The end of the automobile has been predicted since Expo 21 in Seattle, when we were told the monorails would some day wisk us everywhere. Fifty years later we are still in our cars and if I were going to make a prediction I would say that 100 years from now, the private automobile will be our primary form of transportation.
Think the end of oil will get us out of cars? Think again. Recall that as recently as 1970 there were no cell phones, computers, internet, computer aided drafting or satellite TV. Now a car has more computer power than a mainframe had in 1970. Could anyone in 1970 have predicted the things we now take for granted? Can one realistically predict what life will be like in 2050?
When trying to envision the future the only constant is that the pace of technological innovation will accelerate. The private passenger car is a most practical and popular means of transport in a rural county like ours. The only thing that will get us out of our cars is a fuel shortage. New power sources, better batteries, efficient electric and internal combustion motors are on the drawing boards and they will keep us in our cars for the that next 100 years."
Response to Badpony blog of Nov. 27:
Alternatives like electric cars are great, but they are expensive to purchase and they have a lot of embedded energy, which is even truer of the roads we build. My crystal ball says that many people are going to have difficulty affording them. Also, our culture will only make it into the crystal ball if we cut back drastically on energy usage and CO2 emissions, starting right now.
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